Excess Returns

Aswath Damodaran explains his personal investing framework—holding 30‑45 undervalued stocks, using valuation tools (including Monte Carlo simulations) and disciplined sell triggers—to stay uncorrelated with equities amid AI‑driven market upheaval. He warns that massive AI spending creates a likely bubble with negative net present value for most firms, urging investors either to bet on the eventual winner‑take‑all or stay on the periphery while avoiding politically driven or overly capital‑intensive businesses.

In this interview, Charles Schwab strategist Liz Ann Sonders explains why the “Great Moderation” has ended, describing a new unstable, K‑shaped macro environment where 2 % inflation is now viewed as a floor, bond‑stock relationships are reverting to a temperamental era, and policy, geopolitics and AI are reshaping growth and labor dynamics. She stresses the implications for investors—greater reliance on diversification across caps, sectors and international markets, navigating increasingly imputed economic data, and recognizing that AI is currently augmenting tasks rather than replacing whole occupations.

In this episode of Excess Returns, Grant Williams breaks down the “100‑year pivot” – the fourth turning in a century‑long cycle that marks a collapse of trust in institutions, a move away from fiat money, and the rise of gold and alternative currencies. He ties together the 2008 financial crisis, the 2022 Russian asset freeze and historic events like the Suez Canal episode to show how today’s regime shift could bring years of turmoil before a new era of prosperity, urging investors to recognize the risk and adjust their strategies.

two sentences.Sam Ro and Kai Woo debate the current “bubble” narrative, pointing out that the S&P 500’s forward‑PE is about one standard deviation above its 30‑year average—driven in part by historically elevated profit margins and structural shifts in the economy—while emphasizing that valuations alone are a limited guide for short‑term timing. They then examine how AI could boost productivity and reshape margins, but stress that the true impact and the optimum moment to enter or exit remain uncertain, making it crucial for investors to focus on long‑term fundamentals rather than trying to catch a market peak.

description.In this interview, Katie Stockton explains that while the U.S. equity market remains in a long‑term uptrend heading into 2026, recent loss of momentum—evident in Q4 indicators, a narrowing triangle on the Nasdaq‑100 and weakening MACD and stochastic readings—signals heightened short‑term risk and the potential for a volatility‑driven breakout or breakdown. She emphasizes watching key technical cues such as Demark trend‑exhaustion signals, cloud levels, and confirmatory monthly indicators before acting on any near‑term market moves.

.In this interview, Jim Paulsen argues that headline GDP growth is inflated by trade distortions and that the underlying economy is “no‑shaped,” hovering around a sluggish 2 % growth rate with stagnant job creation and many traditional sectors essentially dead. He warns that the market rally is being driven by a narrow new‑era tech segment, and that forthcoming Fed easing could revive the lagging old‑era parts of the economy, creating both risk and opportunity for investors.