Excess Returns

Aswath Damodaran explains his personal investing framework—holding 30‑45 undervalued stocks, using valuation tools (including Monte Carlo simulations) and disciplined sell triggers—to stay uncorrelated with equities amid AI‑driven market upheaval. He warns that massive AI spending creates a likely bubble with negative net present value for most firms, urging investors either to bet on the eventual winner‑take‑all or stay on the periphery while avoiding politically driven or overly capital‑intensive businesses.

In this interview, Charles Schwab strategist Liz Ann Sonders explains why the “Great Moderation” has ended, describing a new unstable, K‑shaped macro environment where 2 % inflation is now viewed as a floor, bond‑stock relationships are reverting to a temperamental era, and policy, geopolitics and AI are reshaping growth and labor dynamics. She stresses the implications for investors—greater reliance on diversification across caps, sectors and international markets, navigating increasingly imputed economic data, and recognizing that AI is currently augmenting tasks rather than replacing whole occupations.

In this episode of Excess Returns, Grant Williams breaks down the “100‑year pivot” – the fourth turning in a century‑long cycle that marks a collapse of trust in institutions, a move away from fiat money, and the rise of gold and alternative currencies. He ties together the 2008 financial crisis, the 2022 Russian asset freeze and historic events like the Suez Canal episode to show how today’s regime shift could bring years of turmoil before a new era of prosperity, urging investors to recognize the risk and adjust their strategies.

two sentences.Sam Ro and Kai Woo debate the current “bubble” narrative, pointing out that the S&P 500’s forward‑PE is about one standard deviation above its 30‑year average—driven in part by historically elevated profit margins and structural shifts in the economy—while emphasizing that valuations alone are a limited guide for short‑term timing. They then examine how AI could boost productivity and reshape margins, but stress that the true impact and the optimum moment to enter or exit remain uncertain, making it crucial for investors to focus on long‑term fundamentals rather than trying to catch a market peak.

description.In this interview, Katie Stockton explains that while the U.S. equity market remains in a long‑term uptrend heading into 2026, recent loss of momentum—evident in Q4 indicators, a narrowing triangle on the Nasdaq‑100 and weakening MACD and stochastic readings—signals heightened short‑term risk and the potential for a volatility‑driven breakout or breakdown. She emphasizes watching key technical cues such as Demark trend‑exhaustion signals, cloud levels, and confirmatory monthly indicators before acting on any near‑term market moves.

.In this interview, Jim Paulsen argues that headline GDP growth is inflated by trade distortions and that the underlying economy is “no‑shaped,” hovering around a sluggish 2 % growth rate with stagnant job creation and many traditional sectors essentially dead. He warns that the market rally is being driven by a narrow new‑era tech segment, and that forthcoming Fed easing could revive the lagging old‑era parts of the economy, creating both risk and opportunity for investors.

.The video examines Bill Bengen’s original 4% safe‑withdrawal rule—how he identified the worst‑case historic scenarios (notably the 1968 retiree) and defined the rule as an initial 4% drawdown with yearly inflation adjustments. It then shows financial planners breaking down the rule’s real‑world limits, illustrating how inflation, market valuations, sequence‑of‑returns risk and portfolio diversification reshape the guideline for today’s retirement planning.

Gautam Baid breaks down the “brutal math” of compounding, showing how a tiny slice of stocks—about 4 % in the U.S. and 1 % in India—creates virtually all wealth and why the convex upside and concave downside lets investors be wrong half the time yet still achieve spectacular long‑run returns. He stresses a disciplined, long‑term, value‑focused process—anchored by diligent journaling, continual thesis testing and vigilant monitoring of quality versus junk stocks—to capture the massive upside while steering clear of complacency and liquidity‑cycle pitfalls.

In this insightful video, the hosts synthesize 22 different 2026 market forecasts to provide a comprehensive overview of the predictions for earnings growth, profit margins, and market trends. They discuss the implications of AI on the economy and highlight the discrepancies among forecasters, while urging viewers to approach these predictions with a healthy dose of skepticism.

In this enlightening video, 41 respected investors share their most controversial beliefs about investing, challenging mainstream assumptions and norms. From the future of gold as currency to the effectiveness of quantitative easing, each perspective offers a unique insight into navigating the complexities of the financial world.

In this insightful discussion, Paul Eitelman from Russell Investments shares his analysis on shifting economic dynamics, highlighting a potential transition to a more favorable growth environment driven by fiscal stimulus and easing financial conditions. He emphasizes that while the past headwinds from trade policy and immigration restrictions are fading, the ongoing acceleration in AI adoption is poised to reshape the market landscape, presenting new opportunities for investors as we approach 2026.

In this insightful discussion, the hosts challenge conventional investment wisdom by asserting that nothing is entitled to a permanent place in your portfolio; each asset must justify its existence based on merit. They analyze market trends over the past 15 years, emphasizing the importance of thoughtful asset allocation and the pitfalls of blindly following institutional investment strategies.

In this insightful conversation, Adrian Helfert discusses the complexities of investing in today's AI-driven economy, weighing the near-term opportunities against the potential risks of irrational exuberance among investors. He emphasizes the importance of understanding company fundamentals and margin dynamics as technology continues to reshape market landscapes, highlighting the need for careful portfolio management amid potential existential threats to established companies.

In this thought-provoking episode, Ben Hunt and Adam Butler explore the concept of "procarity," the precariousness facing today's families, particularly through the lens of economic challenges and societal expectations. They dissect the flawed metrics of the American Dream and how the pursuit of it has become increasingly burdensome due to rising costs and debt, ultimately questioning the very narratives that shape our understanding of human flourishing.

In this insightful discussion, David Wright, head of quantitative investing at Picat Asset Management, explores the integration of machine learning and AI in stock selection strategies, emphasizing how these technologies enhance the investment process. He highlights the balance between human judgment and machine-driven insights, explaining how AI can identify impactful features and relationships within data, ultimately informing a robust investment strategy.

In this episode, Chris Mayer and Robert Hagstrom challenge conventional investing wisdom, arguing that traditional metrics like price-to-earnings ratios can mislead investors about a stock's true value. They delve into the significance of understanding the underlying concepts of investing and the dangers of relying on abstract financial language, suggesting that a broader comprehension of value and growth is essential for successful investing.

In this video, the hosts analyze the current state of the options market and its implications for the equity landscape as we approach the year-end expiration. They discuss market dynamics, AI's ongoing influence, and the potential for a Santa Claus rally based on options volumes and seasonal patterns, while emphasizing the need for traders to pay attention to the evolving flow of money in the market.

In this insightful video, Ed Yardeni discusses his recent decision to downgrade the Magnificent Seven tech stocks, emphasizing the need for diversification in investment portfolios as these tech giants now make up a significant portion of the S&P 500. He also explores broader economic trends, including the potential impacts of AI on productivity and inflation, while encouraging investors to rethink long-held assumptions in a rapidly evolving market landscape.

In this insightful video, Andrew Beer discusses the power of managed futures as an often-overlooked diversification strategy, highlighting its potential to enhance portfolio resilience during market downturns. He emphasizes the unique ability of these strategies to provide exposure to key trends that traditional portfolios may miss, making them a valuable addition for individual investors seeking to navigate volatility.

In this insightful episode of Excess Returns, Matt Reustle discusses the critical metrics that differentiate exceptional businesses from the rest, focusing on the importance of a self-reinforcing sales model and financial hygiene. Through engaging examples, he demonstrates how understanding cash flows and industry dynamics can lead to successful investment decisions, ultimately helping viewers recognize patterns that indicate long-term business sustainability.

In this video, Graeme Forster discusses the critical investment insights from his paper "Six Courageous Questions for 2026," emphasizing the risks associated with familiar investment environments and the necessity to adapt to potential shifts in global economic dynamics. He explores how historical trends may be changing, particularly regarding the influence of China and the evolving landscape of asset performance for investors.

In this episode of "Excess Returns," financial expert Jim Grant discusses the cyclical nature of interest rates and the current economic landscape, emphasizing the absurdity of global debt levels, which now exceed $20 trillion in negative-yield bonds. He explores historical patterns, the implications of current investment behaviors, and the potential for inflation driven by geopolitical tensions and tangible economic investments.

In this insightful discussion, Jim Paulsen highlights the unnoticed economic challenges that have been affecting the United States over the past 20 years, including a significant decline in real GDP growth and a concerning increase in unemployment duration. He emphasizes that while policymakers focus on fighting inflation, the real issue lies in addressing the stagnation of sustainable growth and understanding the broader economic indicators that reflect the need for change.

In this insightful video, 50 renowned investors share key lessons they've learned throughout their investing journeys, emphasizing that successful investing is more about preserving and growing wealth than chasing quick riches. The episode distills their advice into memorable takeaways, encouraging viewers to focus on their individual strategies, understand the long-term nature of investing, and remain mindful of the emotional aspects related to market decisions.

In this insightful discussion, Ben Hunt explores the impending economic and societal consequences of a government-driven push for AI development, likening it to a WWII-scale mobilization. He warns that the massive capital reallocation into AI not only threatens jobs but also risks creating shortages in essential resources, leading to inflation and a diminishing consumer economy.

In this episode, Louis-Vincent Gave discusses China's aggressive growth strategy following economic pressures from the U.S., emphasizing the shift in investments from real estate to industrial innovation. Gave argues that China’s competitive landscape has evolved dramatically, positioning it for increased global dominance, particularly in electric vehicles and technology, while highlighting misconceptions about its economic structure.

In this insightful episode of "Excess Returns," Mary Ann Bartels, Chief Investment Strategist at Sanctuary Wealth, discusses the staggering patterns in the market that indicate we're still in the early stages of a bubble. She provides a detailed analysis of technological advancements and their impacts on productivity and profitability, while sharing her projections for the S&P by 2026, emphasizing the importance of staying invested during potentially volatile times ahead.

In this insightful conversation, Carl Kaufman discusses the current landscape of the fixed income market, emphasizing the surprising quality dynamics in high yield and investment grade bonds, alongside the evolution of private credit. He also shares his investment philosophy and strategies, highlighting the importance of understanding economic cycles and the unique risks associated with the recent tech-driven debt expansions.

In this insightful discussion, Rob Arnott examines the concept of market bubbles, emphasizing that bubbles often arise from implausible growth assumptions and narratives that capture investor attention. He warns against short-selling bubbles due to their potential to persist longer than anticipated and shares practical advice for navigating the current market landscape by considering diversification strategies and the importance of focusing on companies' economic fundamentals rather than purely on growth narratives.